Abstract:Objective To evaluate the diagnostic value of optical coherence tomography (OCT) combined with tissue transglutaminase lgA antibody (tTGA) detection for celiac disease, and to construct a correlation nomogram model verify its efficacy in predicting celiac. Methods One hundred and nine patients with celiac disease screening score ≥ 3 who visited People''s Hospital of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region from January 2019 to August 2022 were selected as the subjects. They were divided into celiac disease group and non-celiac disease group according to pathological diagnosis. The general clinical data, tTGA and OCT performance of patients between the two groups were compared. The significant indicators in the single factor analysis were further analyzed by using the logistic multivariate regression model to obtain independent predictors, and a nomogram model was then established to predict the risk of celiac disease based on independent predictors. The calibration curve of the nomogram model was drawn, and the calibration ability was evaluated. Finally, the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve of independent prediction factors was drawn, and their prediction effectiveness was further analyzed. Results The body mass index (20.2±1.4 kg/m2 VS 23.3±1.5 kg/m2, t=2.459, P=0.023) and hemoglobin (79.8±10.7 g/L VS 88.7±10.9 g/L, t=3.487, P<0.001) in the celiac disease group were significantly lower than those in the non-celiac disease group. The screening score of celiac disease (7.0±1.0 VS 4.0±1.0, t=8.157, P<0.001) in the celiac disease group was significantly higher than that of the other group. The proportion of tTGA positive (16/24 VS 20/85, χ2=5.462, P=0.024) and small intestinal villus atrophy on OCT (20/24 VS 10/85, χ2=9.255, P<0.001) in the celiac disease group were significantly higher than those in the other group. The results of logistic multivariate regression analysis showed that tTGA positive (OR=2.687, 95%CI: 1.496-7.289, P=0.011), the screening score of celiac disease (OR=2.336, 95%CI: 1.254-7.875, P=0.017) and OCT small intestinal villus atrophy (OR=5.635, 95%CI:1.534-12.009, P<0.001) were independent predictors for celiac disease. The nomogram model was established based on the tTGA, the screening score of celiac disease and OCT small intestinal villus atrophy combined with their influential weights. The calibration curve showed that the predicted risk of celiac disease was in good agreement with the observed value (P>0.05). ROC analysis results showed that the area under the curve (AUC) of positive tTGA predicting celiac disease was 0.756 (95%CI: 0.721-0.826). The AUC of celiac disease screening score was 0.789 (95%CI: 0.751-0.854), and the best cut-off point for diagnosis was 8 points. The AUC of small intestinal villus atrophy in OCT was 0.819 (95%CI: 0.783-0.872). The AUC jointly predicted by the above three was 0.913 (95%CI: 0.867-0.954). Conclusion The nomogram model based on tTGA, celiac disease screening score and OCT small intestinal villus atrophy can be used to accurately predict the risk of celiac disease.